Projected Hg dietary exposure of 3 bird species nesting on a contaminated floodplain (South River, Virginia, USA)

Dietary Hg exposure was modeled for Carolina wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus), Eastern song sparrow (Melospiza melodia), and Eastern screech owl (Otus asio) nesting on the contaminated South River floodplain (Virginia, USA). Parameterization of Monte-Carlo models required formal expert elicitation to define bird body weight and feeding ecology characteristics because specific information was either unavailable in the published literature or too difficult to collect reliably by field survey. Mercury concentrations and weights for candidate food items were obtained directly by field survey. Simulations predicted the probability that an adult bird during breeding season would ingest specific amounts of Hg during daily foraging and the probability that the average Hg ingestion rate for the breeding season of an adult bird would exceed published rates reported to cause harm to other birds (\u3e 100ng total Hg/g body weight per day). Despite the extensive floodplain contamination, the probabilities that these species\u27 average ingestion rates exceeded the threshold value were all \u3c 0.01. Sensitivity analysis indicated that overall food ingestion rate was the most important factor determining projected Hg ingestion rates. Expert elicitation was useful in providing sufficiently reliable information for Monte-Carlo simulation

The sedimentary geology, palaeoenvironments and ichnocoenoses of the Lower Devonian Horlick Formation, Ohio Range, Antarctica

Six ichnocoenoses in the clastic Devonian Horlick Formation (max. 56 m) confirm the nearshore marine character of eight of the nine lithofacies present. A basal sand sheet overlies a weathered granitic land surface (Kukri Erosion Surface) on Cambro - Ordovician granitoids. The level nature of this surface and the way it cuts across weathering profiles, suggests that the surface had been modified by marine processes prior to deposition. The basal sand sheet (Cross-bedded Sand sheet Lithofacies) contains tidal bundles, and at its top, abundant Monocraterion (Monocraterion Ichnocoenosis). The second sand sheet (Pleurothyrella Lithofacies) is heavily burrowed and shows alternating periods of sedimentation, burrowing, and erosion below wave base as the sea deepened (Catenarichnus Ichnocoenosis). With increasing transgression, finer sediments were deposited (Laminated Mudstone and Feldspathic lithofacies) in an unstable pattern of coarse sandbars and finer troughs (Cruziana-Rusophycus and Arenicolites ichnocoenoses) crossed by active longshore marine channels (Poorly-sorted Lithofacies, Spirophyton Ichnoocoenosis). Short-lived but powerful storms produced thin shelly tempestites (Shell-bed Lithofacies), whereas sporadic, very thin phosphate rich beds (Phosphatic Lithofacies) may have resulted from marine transgressions across the basin. The deepest water is probably represented by sediments of the Spirifer Lithofacies (Rosselia Ichnocoenosis). The Schulthess Lithofacies is regarded as fluvial, deposited in the lower reaches of a river draining a land area that lay towards Marie Byrd Land. Channels in the basal sand sheet indicate movement to the southwest, but orientation became more variable higher in the sequence. Four new measured sections are figured. The relationship of the Ohio Range to the rest of Antarctica during the Devonian is suggested.published_or_final_versio

Edge-Based Compartmental Modeling for Infectious Disease Spread Part III: Disease and Population Structure

We consider the edge-based compartmental models for infectious disease spread introduced in Part I. These models allow us to consider standard SIR diseases spreading in random populations. In this paper we show how to handle deviations of the disease or population from the simplistic assumptions of Part I. We allow the population to have structure due to effects such as demographic detail or multiple types of risk behavior the disease to have more complicated natural history. We introduce these modifications in the static network context, though it is straightforward to incorporate them into dynamic networks. We also consider serosorting, which requires using the dynamic network models. The basic methods we use to derive these generalizations are widely applicable, and so it is straightforward to introduce many other generalizations not considered here

Considerations about multistep community detection

The problem and implications of community detection in networks have raised a huge attention, for its important applications in both natural and social sciences. A number of algorithms has been developed to solve this problem, addressing either speed optimization or the quality of the partitions calculated. In this paper we propose a multi-step procedure bridging the fastest, but less accurate algorithms (coarse clustering), with the slowest, most effective ones (refinement). By adopting heuristic ranking of the nodes, and classifying a fraction of them as `critical', a refinement step can be restricted to this subset of the network, thus saving computational time. Preliminary numerical results are discussed, showing improvement of the final partition.Comment: 12 page

Worldwide food recall patterns over an eleven month period: A country perspective.

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Following the World Health Organization Forum in November 2007, the Beijing Declaration recognized the importance of food safety along with the rights of all individuals to a safe and adequate diet. The aim of this study is to retrospectively analyze the patterns in food alert and recall by countries to identify the principal hazard generators and gatekeepers of food safety in the eleven months leading up to the Declaration.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The food recall data set was collected by the Laboratory of the Government Chemist (LGC, UK) over the period from January to November 2007. Statistics were computed with the focus reporting patterns by the 117 countries. The complexity of the recorded interrelations was depicted as a network constructed from structural properties contained in the data. The analysed network properties included degrees, weighted degrees, modularity and <it>k</it>-core decomposition. Network analyses of the reports, based on 'country making report' (<it>detector</it>) and 'country reported on' (<it>transgressor</it>), revealed that the network is organized around a dominant core.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Ten countries were reported for sixty per cent of all faulty products marketed, with the top 5 countries having received between 100 to 281 reports. Further analysis of the dominant core revealed that out of the top five transgressors three made no reports (in the order China > Turkey > Iran). The top ten detectors account for three quarters of reports with three > 300 (Italy: 406, Germany: 340, United Kingdom: 322).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Of the 117 countries studied, the vast majority of food reports are made by 10 countries, with EU countries predominating. The majority of the faulty foodstuffs originate in ten countries with four major producers making no reports. This pattern is very distant from that proposed by the Beijing Declaration which urges all countries to take responsibility for the provision of safe and adequate diets for their nationals.</p

Beyond clustering: mean-field dynamics on networks with arbitrary subgraph composition

Clustering is the propensity of nodes that share a common neighbour to be connected. It is ubiquitous in many networks but poses many modelling challenges. Clustering typically manifests itself by a higher than expected frequency of triangles, and this has led to the principle of constructing networks from such building blocks. This approach has been generalised to networks being constructed from a set of more exotic subgraphs. As long as these are fully connected, it is then possible to derive mean-field models that approximate epidemic dynamics well. However, there are virtually no results for non-fully connected subgraphs. In this paper, we provide a general and automated approach to deriving a set of ordinary differential equations, or mean-field model, that describes, to a high degree of accuracy, the expected values of system-level quantities, such as the prevalence of infection. Our approach offers a previously unattainable degree of control over the arrangement of subgraphs and network characteristics such as classical node degree, variance and clustering. The combination of these features makes it possible to generate families of networks with different subgraph compositions while keeping classical network metrics constant. Using our approach, we show that higher-order structure realised either through the introduction of loops of different sizes or by generating networks based on different subgraphs but with identical degree distribution and clustering, leads to non-negligible differences in epidemic dynamics

Epidemics on contact networks: a general stochastic approach

Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach is especially well adapted for modelling spreading processes and/or population dynamics. In particular, the generality of our systematic framework and the fact that its assumptions are explicitly stated suggests that it could be used as a common ground for comparing existing epidemics models too complex for direct comparison, such as agent-based computer simulations. We provide many examples for the special cases of susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) and susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) dynamics (e.g., epidemics propagation) and we observe multiple situations where accurate results may be obtained at low computational cost. Our perspective reveals a subtle balance between the complex requirements of a realistic model and its basic assumptions.Comment: Main document: 16 pages, 7 figures. Electronic Supplementary Material (included): 6 pages, 1 tabl

The Fluid Mechanics of Liquid Democracy

Liquid democracy is the principle of making collective decisions by letting agents transitively delegate their votes. Despite its significant appeal, it has become apparent that a weakness of liquid democracy is that a small subset of agents may gain massive influence. To address this, we propose to change the current practice by allowing agents to specify multiple delegation options instead of just one. Much like in nature, where --- fluid mechanics teaches us --- liquid maintains an equal level in connected vessels, so do we seek to control the flow of votes in a way that balances influence as much as possible. Specifically, we analyze the problem of choosing delegations to approximately minimize the maximum number of votes entrusted to any agent, by drawing connections to the literature on confluent flow. We also introduce a random graph model for liquid democracy, and use it to demonstrate the benefits of our approach both theoretically and empirically.Comment: Simulation code is available at https://github.com/pgoelz/flui

Quadratic optimal functional quantization of stochastic processes and numerical applications

In this paper, we present an overview of the recent developments of functional quantization of stochastic processes, with an emphasis on the quadratic case. Functional quantization is a way to approximate a process, viewed as a Hilbert-valued random variable, using a nearest neighbour projection on a finite codebook. A special emphasis is made on the computational aspects and the numerical applications, in particular the pricing of some path-dependent European options.Comment: 41 page